Pillar E · State as of 2026-09-25

How much energy does a quantum computer use?

As of September 25, 2026, a working quantum computer draws tens of kilowatts — Google ran Sycamore at ≈26 kW total wall power (RAND, 2023) and D-Wave rates its Advantage at 25 kW maximum (vendor datasheet) — about a thousandth of an exascale supercomputer (Frontier: 24,607 kW, TOP500 June 2026; the ratio is our arithmetic). But watts are not verdicts: on the one task with a claimed quantum win, a 2024 classical rerun spent 0.29 kWh against the quantum run’s 4.3 kWh (Fu et al., arXiv:2407.00769). Measured end-to-end energy advantage for quantum hardware on the public record today: none. Rosetta Quantum reads energy claims the way it reads advantage claims: measured first, promised second.
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State as of: 2026-09-25
Rosetta QuantumQUANTUM VERIFICATION LEDGERPILLAR E · THE ENERGY LEDGERSTATUS AS OF: 2026-09-25How much energydoes a quantumcomputer use?≈26 kWSycamore's total wall power (RAND, 2023);one exascale HPC draws 24.6 MW (TOP500 6/26)26 kWSYC '1924.6 MWFRONTIER125 MWCRQC ESTrosettaquantum.com/blograw, reproducible data · sources below

Status as of September 25, 2026. A working quantum computer today draws tens of kilowatts. Google ran its Sycamore processor at roughly 26 kW of total wall power (The Conversation, Oct 2022; breakdown in RAND, 2023), and D-Wave rates its Advantage system at 25 kW maximum (datasheet, 2022). An exascale supercomputer draws about a thousand times more: Frontier is listed at 24,607 kW on the June 2026 TOP500 (TOP500); the ×1,000 ratio is our own arithmetic on those two published figures. That gap is real and measured. What does not follow from it is the popular conclusion — that quantum computing is already the green alternative. Energy per machine is not energy per solved problem, and on the one task where a quantum machine claimed a win, the best classical rerun now spends less energy than the quantum run did (Fu et al., 2024). Rosetta Quantum reads the energy question the way it reads every claim: measured first, promised second.

How many kilowatts does a real quantum machine draw today?

Tens of kilowatts — a large house, not a power plant. The two machine-level figures on the public record that this run could verify: ≈26 kW for Google’s Sycamore, which RAND’s 2023 review breaks into ≈10 kW for the dilution-refrigerator compressor, 10–13 kW for chilled-water cooling and ≈3 kW for classical control electronics (Parker & Vermeer, RAND, 2023), and 25 kW rated maximum for D-Wave’s Advantage annealer, per the vendor’s own datasheet (D-Wave, 2022). Two properties of that number matter more than its size. First, the draw is roughly constant: the refrigerator runs around the clock whether the QPU is computing or idle, so the energy bill is dominated by uptime, not workload. Second, at today’s scales the draw barely tracks qubit count — Sycamore’s 53 qubits and Advantage’s 5,000+ qubits sit within the same ≈25 kW envelope, because what is being cooled is a cryostat, not a transistor per qubit.

THE WALL-POWER LEDGERmeasured machine power today vs published at-scale estimatesMEASURED TODAYSycamore total '19≈26 kWDR compressor≈10 kWchilled water10-13 kWcontrol electr.≈3 kWD-Wave Adv rated25 kWAT-SCALE ESTIMATESCRQC (RAND '23)125 MWper phys. qubit6.25 WCRQC (MNR '23)≈7 MWRSA-2048 runtime1.5-7.1 hphys. qubits20Mleft: RAND 2023 + D-Wave datasheet · right: RAND 2023 + arXiv:2209.05469at-scale estimates disagree by ≈18× — both are future tense

Where does the electricity actually go?

Into refrigeration, not computation. A superconducting QPU operates at 15–25 millikelvin, and holding it there is a fight against thermodynamics. IBM’s Goldeneye — the largest quantum-ready cryostat yet built, with 1.7 m³ of experimental volume, cooled to ≈25 mK — delivers about 10 milliwatts of cooling power at the 100 mK stage and ≈24 W at 4 K (IBM, Sep 2022). Set those milliwatts against the ≈10 kW a dilution-refrigerator compressor draws from the wall (RAND, 2023) and the shape of the machine appears: roughly a million watts in per watt of heat removed at the coldest stage — our arithmetic on the two published figures. The energy of a quantum computer is not the cost of flipping qubits; it is the cost of keeping a fraction of a cubic meter colder than deep space, continuously. Trapped-ion and photonic machines skip the dilution refrigerator (vacuum chambers, lasers, and ≈4 K stages instead), but we could not find published system-level wall-power specs for those platforms in this run’s sources — an absence worth naming, not a verdict.

How does that compare with a supercomputer?

The comparison is ≈1,000× in quantum’s favor on wall power — and it means less than it sounds. Here is the ledger, every row from a published source:

System Class Power / energy, as published Source
Google Sycamore (superconducting, 53 qubits) QPU ≈26 kW wall; 4.3 kWh per 600-s sampling run RAND 2023 · Fu et al. 2024
D-Wave Advantage (annealer, 5,000+ qubits) QPU 25 kW rated maximum D-Wave datasheet 2022
IBM Goldeneye (experimental cryostat) fridge 1.7 m³; ≈10 mW cooling at 100 mK IBM, Sep 2022
Frontier (ORNL) HPC 24,607 kW TOP500, Jun 2026
El Capitan (LLNL) HPC 29,685 kW TOP500, Jun 2026
LineShine (Shenzhen) HPC 42,220 kW TOP500, Jun 2026
CRQC (hypothetical RSA-2048 machine) estimate ≈7 MW to ≈125 MW — will stay an estimate until built arXiv:2209.05469 · RAND 2023

Watts, however, are not verdicts. The honest unit is energy per solved problem, and that unit only exists where both machines actually solve the same problem. On problem classes with no demonstrated quantum advantage — today, that is every commercial class on Rosetta’s proven-advantage list — the supercomputer’s megawatts buy answers and the cryostat’s kilowatts buy physics experiments. A machine that draws 1,000× less power but does not solve your problem is not greener; it is idle. (What a quantum run costs in dollars rather than watts is its own ledger.)

Does the «quantum is green» argument survive the data?

As a conditional, yes; as a present-tense claim, no. The serious version was put on the record in 2022: Sycamore consumes far less than a supercomputer on its sampling task — but that task «has no identified ‘useful’ application to date», and the projected savings assume qubits «of a quality that is still out of reach in practice today» (The Conversation, Oct 2022). Jaschke & Montangero turned the condition into a threshold: a green quantum advantage exists where the QPU spends less energy than the best classical emulation at equal fidelity, and their estimate places the crossover near an entanglement power-law exponent α ≲ 1 — favorable for random circuits, unfavorable for structured algorithms like the quantum Fourier transform (Quantum Sci. Technol., 2023). Then the flagship example inverted. In July 2024, Fu et al. ran Sycamore’s sampling task on 2,304 A100 GPUs in 17.18 seconds at matching XEB fidelity (0.002), spending 0.29 kWh against the 4.3 kWh a Sycamore run of the same 3-million-sample size consumes at ≈26 kW — «outperforming Google’s quantum processor Sycamore in both speed and energy efficiency», in the paper’s own words (arXiv:2407.00769). That is the paper our Sycamore retrospective flagged as unverified yesterday; this run verified it at its arXiv source. Zhao et al. then cut classical simulation energy by another two orders of magnitude against prior GPU runs while re-running the task faster than the quantum machine (Natl. Sci. Rev. 12, nwae317). The scoreboard as of today: no task on the public record shows quantum hardware demonstrably spending less energy than the best classical run of the same task.

THE ENERGY CLOCK: 2019 → 2026power and energy milestones on the public recordOCT 201926 kWSycamore samples RCS at ≈26 kW wall powerSEP 20221.7 m³IBM Goldeneye super-fridge cools to ≈25 mKOCT 2022claimenergy pitched as the quantum edge, with caveatsNOV 2022α ≲ 1green-advantage threshold proposed (J&M)APR 2023125 MWRAND extrapolates CRQC wall power (est.)OCT 2023≈7 MWMNR full-stack optimized CRQC estimateJUL 20240.29 kWhclassical rerun beats Sycamore's 4.3 kWh2025100×Zhao et al. cut sim energy vs prior GPU runsJUN 202624.6 MWFrontier's measured draw on the TOP500measured energy advantage for a QPU on any task, to date: none

What will a fault-tolerant machine consume?

Nobody has measured one, because none exists — and the published estimates disagree by ≈18× (our arithmetic on the two figures). RAND extrapolates ≈125 MW for a cryptanalytically relevant quantum computer breaking RSA-2048 — 6.25 W per physical qubit across 20 million qubits, 7.1 hours per key — and flags its own extrapolation as extremely rough (RAND, 2023). Fellous-Asiani et al., optimizing the full stack with their Metric-Noise-Resource methodology, estimate the same job will run at ≈7 MW in 1.5 hours (PRX Quantum, 2023). Both numbers will remain estimates until someone meters a real machine. Either way, the kilowatt era is a property of today’s lab-scale devices, not a law of the technology: at useful scale, quantum computers will be megawatt facilities too — and the grid that would host them is a ledger Rosetta has already scored.

What we don’t know

Rosetta Quantum publishes verdicts with raw, reproducible data. This is educational content, not a product claim.

Sources:
· Parker & Vermeer, «Estimating the Energy Requirements to Operate a Cryptanalytically Relevant Quantum Computer», RAND (Apr 2023)
· Fu et al., «Achieving Energetic Superiority Through System-Level Quantum Circuit Simulation» (Jul 2024)
· Jaschke & Montangero, «Is quantum computing green?», Quantum Sci. Technol. (2023)
· Fellous-Asiani et al., «Optimizing resource efficiencies for scalable full-stack quantum computers», PRX Quantum (2023)
· «Could energy efficiency be quantum computers’ greatest strength yet?», The Conversation (Oct 2022)
· D-Wave Advantage datasheet (2022) — 25 kW rated maximum
· IBM Quantum blog, «IBM cools down world’s largest quantum-ready cryostat» (Sep 2022)
· TOP500 list, June 2026 edition
· Zhao et al., Natl. Sci. Rev. 12, nwae317 (2025)
· Rosetta Quantum — Google’s 2019 supremacy claim, seven years on
· Rosetta Quantum — Is quantum useful for energy and power grids?
· Rosetta Quantum — Which problems have proven quantum advantage?
· Rosetta Quantum — What does it cost to run a problem on a real quantum computer?

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